Last Call

Is Bitcoin About To Leave The Station?

01/10/24 is the SEC deadline to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.

That’s in less than four weeks.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts are putting the odds at 90% in favor of an approval.

That’s because the SEC lost a key legal battle against Grayscale Investments back in August, making it very challenging to reject the upcoming 21Shares and Ark Invest filings, which come due in January.

By all accounts, the SEC has simply given up, with even its own Commissioner, Hester Peirce, openly questioning her agency’s prior actions:

I thought that we should have approved one of these over five years ago, so the fact that we haven’t done it yet is a mystery to me.

Even a sheepish-seeming Gary Gensler was singing a very different tune in an awkward CNBC interview from earlier this week:

We had in the past denied a number of these applications, but the courts here in the District of Columbia weighed in on that. And so we’re taking a new look at this based upon those court rulings.

That’s right, Reuters reports that the SEC is now engaging constructively with ETF issuers, helping to dot the 'i's and cross the 't's ahead of the January deadline.

To quote Bob Dylan, the times they are a-changin’ 🎵

What does all this mean?

All the finance lingo and technical jargon around market surveillance, in-kind vs. cash redemptions/creations, investor protections, custodial solutions, etc. is a distraction.

Don’t get lost in the sauce.

What this is really about is a historic trade agreement.

The SEC is performing a ceremonial function, in which it blesses the nascent industry and gives the green light for traditional finance to engage in trade, i.e. buy, sell, and hold bitcoin. It’s like those Mafia movies… They’re about to open the books and make Bitcoin a made man.

Once that happens, all bets are off.

Bitcoin will go on sale across the entire nation. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry will be able to participate through their existing brokerage accounts and with the click of a button buy exposure. Every family officer and investment advisor will need to get fluent in their Bitcoin talking points. You won’t be able to scroll social media, watch TV, or open a newspaper (who even does that anymore?) without getting bombarded with Bitcoin ads: Google just updated its advertising rules to allow for “crypto trust products,” ahead of the anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF approval - how convenient is that…

Are you getting the picture here?

Bitcoin is the best-performing asset of all time, despite severe headwinds from entrenched interests. Now, those same interests have capitulated and are about to put their full gravitas behind the network.

The FOMO is going to be unrelenting and deafening.

Reuters estimates the demand could be $3 billion on day 1, making it by far the most successful ETF launch of all time. That would make BITO, a ProShares bitcoin futures ETF, the second most successful launch, with $1 billion in trading volume on its first day.

This is the final call, place your bets accordingly.

And for the naysayers, Bob Dylan has a few words:

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
The battle outside ragin'
Will soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'

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